How to Beat Green in Aetherdrift
Green has established itself as the boogeyman of Aetherdrift, boasting absurdly high win rates in the early weeks of the format. By now, enough players have caught on, and drafters are competing for the premium Green cards. This self-correcting mechanism has led to a healthier meta where Green remains strong but no longer unbeatable, allowing non-Green archetypes a chance to shine.
Nevertheless, a well-built Green deck remains a force to be reckoned with, making it crucial to understand how to beat it. This article presents the results of a data analysis on card win rates in matchups against Green decks.
Methodology
To identify cards that work well against a certain color, we can compute win rates only from games where the opponent played that color. Win rates are always game-in-hand win rates and are only computed when at least 1000 data points (games) were available.
To achieve this, we use the recently published dataset available on 17Lands. The dataset for Premier Draft contains records of 655,453 games. Of those, 211,014 were played against two-color Green decks. These games will be the foundation of our analysis.
The table below shows the number of games per green archetype, as well as the average win rate when playing against them. Therefore, the lower the win rate, the better the archetype in question. So Golgari is the strongest and Gruul the weakest Green archetype.
| Opponent Archetype | Games | Win Rate |
|---|---|---|
| Green | 211,014 | 53.3% |
| Selsnya (WG) | 45,607 | 53.8% |
| Simic (UG) | 50,852 | 53.2% |
| Golgari (BG) | 70,920 | 52,6% |
| Gruul (RG) | 43,635 | 54.3% |
These win rates serve as a baseline for a fair comparison of individual card performance. For instance, a 56% win rate against Gruul is less impressive than achieving the same win rate against Golgari.
Comparing differences between card win rates and baselines further allows us to get an unbiased picture of card performances.
Let's look at a concrete example - Terrian, World Tyrant. This vanilla uncommon creature has an overall win rate of 57.1%, which is 2.2% higher than the average win rate.
Against Green decks Terrian has a win rate of 59.5%, compared to the Green baseline this is 5.2% higher. Instead of simply comparing win rate differences, we examine the difference in their deltas.
Biased: 59.5% - 57.1% = 2.4%
Unbiased: 5.2% - 2.2% = 3.0%This adjustment accounts for the fact that playing against Green is inherently more challenging, making a high win rate against Green even more impressive. In the following sections this unbiased delta value will simply be called delta.
High absolute delta values indicate that something interesting is going on. If the value is high, we know the card works better against Green than in general. If the value is negative, the card performs worse against Green than in general.
Be cautious when interpreting delta values alone, as a weak card can still have a high delta if it performs slightly less poorly against Green. Always consider the win rate and the delta value together.
White
White’s best tool against Green is its removal suite, which aligns well against Green’s creatures. Ride's End and Gallant Strike are both cheap answers and will often give you a mana advantage.
Not surprisingly Gallant Strike is performing quite a bit better against Green than in general with a delta of 1.1%.
Interestingly, the two white mythic vehicles, Valor's Flagship and Salvation Engine, perform well in this matchup despite being underwhelming overall. Both are big enough to block most problematic Green creatures and can take over the game if not answered. Still they are vehicles that must be crewed, so they come with the usual downsides, and therefore are not bomb-level.
Delta Analysis
The delta ranking of all white cards with a positive win rate offers not much additional insight. All removal options that hit high toughness creatures are doing better here than in general.
Creatures that need to attack for extra value like Gloryheath Lynx and Guardian Sunmare are doing a bit worse. Getting in multiple hits is unlikely when the opponent has some chunky Green creatures on the board.
| Name | All | Green | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|
| Valor's Flagship | 56.0% | 57.4% | 2.1% |
| Salvation Engine | 55.3% | 56.6% | 2.0% |
| Gallant Strike | 57.0% | 57.4% | 1.1% |
| Perilous Snare | 62.0% | 62.2% | 0.9% |
| Spectacular Pileup | 56.0% | 56.1% | 0.8% |
| Detention Chariot | 56.0% | 55.6% | 0.3% |
| Ride's End | 57.3% | 56.8% | 0.2% |
| Voyager Quickwelder | 55.2% | 54.3% | -0.1% |
| Voyager Glidecar | 56.1% | 55.2% | -0.2% |
| Broadcast Rambler | 56.0% | 55.0% | -0.3% |
| Nesting Bot | 55.8% | 54.8% | -0.3% |
| Gloryheath Lynx | 59.4% | 58.1% | -0.7% |
| Basri, Tomorrow's Champion | 57.8% | 56.0% | -1.1% |
| Guardian Sunmare | 58.4% | 56.5% | -1.2% |
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Blue
Just like in White, Blue’s top-performing cards are removal spells that effectively answer Green’s big creatures at a mana advantage. Possession Engine and Spikeshell Harrier are top performing cards in this regard, but Flood the Engine is also seeing a positive delta.
Despite being the fifth best-performing rare, Riverchurn Monument performs considerably worse against Green compared to other matchups. We will later see however that it is doing well against Simic and Golgari, the more late game-oriented Green archetypes.
Delta Analysis
Cheap interaction and tempo plays are working well against decks with expensive creatures. So Bounce Off and Roadside Blowout are two more cards in that category we haven't seen in the previous tables.
Keep in mind that a negative delta doesn't mean the card is bad. Value cards like Transit Mage, Stock Up or Rangers' Refueler still have very good win rates against Green. Their negative delta just implies that they are even better against other archetypes.
| Name | All | Green | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|
| Possession Engine | 60.3% | 60.9% | 1.3% |
| Mindspring Merfolk | 59.5% | 59.6% | 0.8% |
| Bounce Off | 55.9% | 55.9% | 0.7% |
| Spikeshell Harrier | 59.3% | 59.3% | 0.6% |
| Mu Yanling, Wind Rider | 65.6% | 65.4% | 0.5% |
| Thopter Fabricator | 59.6% | 59.4% | 0.5% |
| Flood the Engine | 56.4% | 56.1% | 0.4% |
| Roadside Blowout | 56.3% | 55.7% | 0.1% |
| Memory Guardian | 56.2% | 55.5% | -0.0% |
| Transit Mage | 59.1% | 58.3% | -0.1% |
| Stock Up | 59.6% | 58.7% | -0.2% |
| Spectral Interference | 56.0% | 54.9% | -0.4% |
| Rangers' Refueler | 59.3% | 57.9% | -0.8% |
| Scrounging Skyray | 56.4% | 54.8% | -0.9% |
| Riverchurn Monument | 60.0% | 56.5% | -2.8% |
Black
Black is one of the best-equipped colors for dealing with Green. This is of course because of its access to catch-all removal like Spin Out but also to deathtouch.
Engine Rat and Maximum Overdrive are both performing exceptionally well against Green with a delta of 1.4% and 1.2% respectively.
Recursion also proves to be an effective strategy against Green. Cursecloth Wrappings and Back on Track are top cards in this regard.
Delta Analysis
Leading the delta ranking are deathtouch and recursion.
The widely beloved Wreckage Wickerfolk, however, struggles against Green, likely due to the prevalence of reach creatures.
| Name | All | Green | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|
| Back on Track | 58.1% | 59.1% | 1.7% |
| Engine Rat | 57.9% | 58.7% | 1.4% |
| Cursecloth Wrappings | 59.2% | 59.7% | 1.2% |
| Maximum Overdrive | 56.4% | 56.9% | 1.2% |
| The Speed Demon | 60.8% | 61.0% | 0.9% |
| Wretched Doll | 55.4% | 55.4% | 0.6% |
| Spin Out | 57.4% | 57.2% | 0.5% |
| Gas Guzzler | 56.3% | 56.0% | 0.4% |
| Gonti, Night Minister | 58.2% | 57.8% | 0.3% |
| Demonic Junker | 57.0% | 56.7% | 0.3% |
| Quag Feast | 58.4% | 57.8% | 0.1% |
| Carrion Cruiser | 56.9% | 56.3% | 0.1% |
| Grim Bauble | 57.6% | 56.9% | -0.0% |
| Gastal Raider | 55.5% | 54.8% | -0.1% |
| Pactdoll Terror | 57.6% | 56.5% | -0.4% |
| Momentum Breaker | 57.0% | 55.8% | -0.5% |
| Wreckage Wickerfolk | 57.9% | 56.1% | -1.1% |
Red
The situation for Red looks dire to the point that there is not a single card to highlight here.
Red’s removal does not align well against Green’s creatures, and it lacks a way to go under them There are only two non-rares that have a positive win rate Greasewrench Goblin and Thunderhead Gunner and even they perform better against other archetypes.
Delta Analysis
Looking at this short list, it’s clear that Red heavily relies on its secondary color to stand a chance against Green.
| Name | All | Green | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|
| Boommobile | 58.4% | 58.0% | 0.3% |
| Thunderhead Gunner | 55.9% | 54.7% | -0.5% |
| Chandra, Spark Hunter | 59.1% | 57.8% | -0.6% |
| Hazoret, Godseeker | 58.2% | 56.8% | -0.7% |
| Gastal Thrillroller | 55.8% | 54.3% | -0.7% |
| Draconautics Engineer | 61.6% | 60.1% | -0.8% |
| Howlsquad Heavy | 61.7% | 60.2% | -0.9% |
| Burnout Bashtronaut | 59.1% | 57.0% | -1.4% |
| Greasewrench Goblin | 57.4% | 55.1% | -1.7% |
Green
Finally, let’s examine which Green cards perform best in mirror matches.
Among the top-performing cards with a positive delta, it’s clear that bigger creatures tend to perform better.
Agonasaur Rex, Terrian, World Tyrant and Autarch Mammoth all shine. Special mention goes to Terrian, which boasts an impressive 59.5% win rate against Green. Having 7 toughness is critical as it can single-handedly block threats like Migrating Ketradon.
Delta Analysis
As short as the list of above-average cards was for Red, the longer it is for Green. For completeness sake, they are all listed here.
In terms of delta values, the top three creatures were already discussed. The rest of the list is not as interesting, besides the two cards at the bottom.
March of the World Ooze, while still having a very strong win rate is loosing a little bit since a bunch of 6/6 might not be as devastating for a Green deck. District Mascots ability to blow up artifacts is not very relevant against Green deck who play very few of them.
| Name | All | Green | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|
| Terrian, World Tyrant | 57.1% | 59.5% | 3.0% |
| Agonasaur Rex | 64.6% | 65.6% | 1.7% |
| Autarch Mammoth | 58.6% | 58.6% | 0.7% |
| Earthrumbler | 55.9% | 55.8% | 0.5% |
| Elvish Refueler | 55.6% | 55.4% | 0.5% |
| Venomsac Lagac | 56.1% | 55.9% | 0.5% |
| Pothole Mole | 56.9% | 56.7% | 0.4% |
| Fang Guardian | 56.8% | 56.5% | 0.4% |
| Afterburner Expert | 59.4% | 59.1% | 0.4% |
| Run Over | 57.5% | 57.1% | 0.2% |
| Bestow Greatness | 55.9% | 55.4% | 0.2% |
| Stampeding Scurryfoot | 58.8% | 58.2% | 0.1% |
| Plow Through | 55.5% | 54.9% | 0.1% |
| Dredger's Insight | 57.6% | 57.0% | 0.1% |
| Molt Tender | 57.5% | 56.8% | -0.0% |
| Veloheart Bike | 55.4% | 54.7% | -0.1% |
| Beastrider Vanguard | 56.5% | 55.7% | -0.1% |
| Hazard of the Dunes | 57.0% | 56.2% | -0.1% |
| Lumbering Worldwagon | 65.5% | 64.6% | -0.2% |
| Thunderous Velocipede | 57.6% | 56.7% | -0.2% |
| Jibbirik Omnivore | 55.4% | 54.5% | -0.2% |
| Migrating Ketradon | 57.8% | 56.9% | -0.2% |
| Webstrike Elite | 57.8% | 56.9% | -0.2% |
| Greenbelt Guardian | 58.3% | 57.3% | -0.3% |
| Fang-Druid Summoner | 57.9% | 56.9% | -0.4% |
| Regal Imperiosaur | 57.8% | 56.6% | -0.5% |
| March of the World Ooze | 62.8% | 61.4% | -0.7% |
| District Mascot | 58.3% | 55.1% | -2.5% |
Multicolor
The top performing multicolor cards are dominated by Green cards. Leading the table with an absurd win rate of 71.9% against Green is Sab-Sunen, Luxa Embodied. A 6/6 value engine with indestructible is hard to deal with for most decks even when it only can attack and block half the time.
Riptide Gearhulk is another bomb that is especially effective against Green.
As a more realistically obtainable option during a draft we see Skyserpent Seeker having a positive delta. Again deathtouch on a small creature is key in these matchups.
Delta Analysis
Again the full list is displayed here, but only the top and bottom might be of interest.
Far Fortune, End Boss is performing well, her 5 toughness body has for sure something to do with it. Gastal Thrillseeker - another Rakdos gold card - on the other hand is not doing so well against Green.
| Name | All | Green | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sab-Sunen, Luxa Embodied | 68.2% | 71.9% | 4.4% |
| Aatchik, Emerald Radian | 58.3% | 61.5% | 3.9% |
| Riptide Gearhulk | 63.1% | 66.2% | 3.8% |
| Far Fortune, End Boss | 59.2% | 60.6% | 2.1% |
| Sita Varma, Masked Racer | 60.6% | 61.6% | 1.7% |
| Broodheart Engine | 57.2% | 57.6% | 1.0% |
| Mendicant Core, Guidelight | 55.6% | 55.9% | 1.0% |
| Oildeep Gearhulk | 58.8% | 59.0% | 0.9% |
| Brightglass Gearhulk | 60.0% | 60.2% | 0.9% |
| Skyserpent Seeker | 59.5% | 59.2% | 0.4% |
| Debris Beetle | 61.6% | 61.3% | 0.3% |
| Guidelight Pathmaker | 57.0% | 56.5% | 0.2% |
| Veteran Beastrider | 59.8% | 59.2% | 0.2% |
| Thundering Broodwagon | 61.3% | 60.7% | 0.1% |
| Zahur, Glory's Past | 56.7% | 56.0% | -0.1% |
| Winter, Cursed Rider | 55.6% | 54.7% | -0.2% |
| Captain Howler, Sea Scourge | 58.3% | 57.3% | -0.3% |
| Embalmed Ascendant | 59.3% | 58.0% | -0.6% |
| Caradora, Heart of Alacria | 58.0% | 56.6% | -0.7% |
| Voyage Home | 55.8% | 54.3% | -0.8% |
| Broadside Barrage | 58.0% | 56.5% | -0.9% |
| Haunt the Network | 59.5% | 57.8% | -1.0% |
| Pyrewood Gearhulk | 60.9% | 59.1% | -1.0% |
| Gastal Thrillseeker | 60.0% | 57.2% | -2.1% |
Colorless
For colorless card the one that needs to be praised is Marshals' Pathcruiser. Fetching a land on turn three and then having the option of crewing a 6/5 for the rest of the game is huge and can make attacking for a Green deck difficult.
Marketback Walker is also doing work and falls into the category of value cards we've already seen in Blue that perform well.
Delta Analysis
The delta ranking for colorless cards doesn’t reveal any surprises, as it’s mostly land cards.
| Name | All | Green | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|
| Marketback Walker | 56.9% | 57.4% | 1.2% |
| Willowrush Verge | 55.8% | 56.1% | 1.0% |
| Marshals' Pathcruiser | 58.5% | 58.6% | 0.8% |
| Wastewood Verge | 55.9% | 55.8% | 0.6% |
| Thornwood Falls | 56.3% | 56.1% | 0.5% |
| Jungle Hollow | 55.7% | 55.3% | 0.3% |
| Dismal Backwater | 55.3% | 54.6% | -0.0% |
| Night Market | 55.4% | 54.7% | -0.0% |
| Foul Roads | 55.3% | 54.6% | -0.0% |
| Tranquil Cove | 55.1% | 54.4% | -0.0% |
| Wild Roads | 55.7% | 55.0% | -0.0% |
| Reef Roads | 55.1% | 54.3% | -0.1% |
| The Aetherspark | 61.0% | 60.1% | -0.1% |
| Scoured Barrens | 55.3% | 54.5% | -0.2% |
Green Archetype Deep Dive
So far we only looked at average win rates against any two-color Green deck. Of course, we can break it down even further and only look at which cards are particularly good against each of the Green archetypes.
Since there will be a lot of overlap with the previous tables, we will take a look at cards that have a high absolute delta between their win rates against all Green vs. the archetype.
White/Green - Selesnya
Good against Selesnya decks are artifact and vehicle removal. Broken Wings, Plow Through and Collision Course all have much higher win rates here than against the average Green deck.
Also cheap flyers like Skyserpent Seeker and Diversion Unit perform well. Silken Strength and Draconautics Engineer are also on the list, providing protection in the air.
On the second table nothing of high relevance sticks out. Of course a card like Wreck Remover is going to be worse here than against a graveyard-centric deck like Golgari. As for the remaining cards, the win rate differences are negligible.
| Name | Green | WG | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|
| Broken Wings | 53.1% | 57.4% | 4.3% |
| Sundial, Dawn Tyrant | 53.6% | 57.5% | 4.0% |
| Plow Through | 54.9% | 58.4% | 3.5% |
| Scrap Compactor | 52.8% | 56.2% | 3.3% |
| Skyserpent Seeker | 59.2% | 62.4% | 3.2% |
| Diversion Unit | 53.9% | 57.1% | 3.2% |
| Intimidation Tactics | 54.0% | 57.2% | 3.2% |
| Silken Strength | 53.1% | 56.2% | 3.1% |
| Draconautics Engineer | 60.1% | 63.2% | 3.1% |
| Collision Course | 51.7% | 54.7% | 3.0% |
| Name | Green | WG | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wreck Remover | 51.3% | 49.4% | -2.0% |
| Dynamite Diver | 49.9% | 48.0% | -1.9% |
| Gearseeker Serpent | 52.0% | 50.4% | -1.6% |
| Blossoming Sands | 53.1% | 51.9% | -1.2% |
| Midnight Mangler | 53.0% | 52.0% | -1.1% |
| Pactdoll Terror | 56.5% | 55.5% | -1.0% |
| Ticket Tortoise | 54.0% | 53.0% | -1.0% |
| Tranquil Cove | 54.4% | 53.4% | -1.0% |
| Gonti, Night Minister | 57.8% | 56.8% | -1.0% |
| Haunted Hellride | 52.9% | 51.9% | -1.0% |
Blue/Green - Simic
When scanning through the list, it is easy to notice that Red cards seem to be better against Simic decks (high delta). Looking at their win rates however shows that they are still doing pretty bad.
We see two high mana-value vehicles, Demonic Junker and Possession Engine performing well. Both remove an opposing creature when they enter.
Being in the negative list against Selsnya, here we see Haunted Hellride as a good card. An explanation could be that against Simic you want to be the beatdown and giving your creatures deathtouch is an effective way of attacking into huge creatures. Against Selesnya however you probably want to take the control role. This could also be the reason that Riverchurn Monument is doing well in this matchup.
Interestingly in the negative delta list we see a lot of big green threats like Aatchik, Emerald Radian and Autarch Mammoth doing noticeably worse. Probably these cards don't align well against Blue interaction that Simic has at its disposal.
| Name | Green | UG | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|
| Demonic Junker | 56.7% | 59.9% | 3.3% |
| Skycrash | 51.1% | 53.9% | 2.8% |
| Road Rage | 53.9% | 56.6% | 2.7% |
| Haunted Hellride | 52.9% | 55.3% | 2.4% |
| Pedal to the Metal | 48.8% | 51.1% | 2.3% |
| Burner Rocket | 48.3% | 50.4% | 2.1% |
| Riverchurn Monument | 56.5% | 58.6% | 2.1% |
| Burnout Bashtronaut | 57.0% | 58.9% | 1.9% |
| Gastal Blockbuster | 48.0% | 49.8% | 1.8% |
| Possession Engine | 60.9% | 62.5% | 1.7% |
| Name | Green | UG | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aatchik, Emerald Radian | 61.5% | 55.7% | -5.8% |
| Ooze Patrol | 53.8% | 49.0% | -4.9% |
| Howlsquad Heavy | 60.2% | 55.9% | -4.3% |
| Terrian, World Tyrant | 59.5% | 55.2% | -4.3% |
| Intimidation Tactics | 54.0% | 49.7% | -4.3% |
| Agonasaur Rex | 65.6% | 61.5% | -4.1% |
| Marketback Walker | 57.4% | 53.6% | -3.8% |
| Broodheart Engine | 57.6% | 53.7% | -3.8% |
| Autarch Mammoth | 58.6% | 54.9% | -3.7% |
| Daring Mechanic | 49.0% | 45.6% | -3.4% |
Black/Green - Golgari
Golgari is considered the best performing archetype in the format and has proven its effectiveness in the early weeks.
It wants to play the long game, so cards like Riverchurn Monument and Aether Syphon are doing well by attacking on a non-combat axis. Also, Golgari plays self-mill cards like Pothole Mole, making a mill strategy even more appealing.
Since there are a lot of graveyard synergies in this archetype, removal is at a disadvantage. Spectacular Pileup sees a big drop in win rate against Golgari decks to the point of being unplayable.
Other removal spells that don't look too attractive are Plow Through, Road Rage and Lightning Strike. These are not only often not able to deal with big Green threats but negated by recursion effects.
| Name | Green | BG | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aatchik, Emerald Radian | 61.5% | 64.8% | 3.3% |
| Sab-Sunen, Luxa Embodied | 71.9% | 75.0% | 3.1% |
| Riverchurn Monument | 56.5% | 59.4% | 2.9% |
| Rover Blades | 47.4% | 49.2% | 1.8% |
| Dune Drifter | 53.9% | 55.6% | 1.8% |
| Wreck Remover | 51.3% | 53.0% | 1.7% |
| Guidelight Pathmaker | 56.5% | 58.0% | 1.5% |
| Aether Syphon | 53.8% | 55.2% | 1.5% |
| Marshals' Pathcruiser | 58.6% | 60.0% | 1.4% |
| Memory Guardian | 55.5% | 56.7% | 1.2% |
| Name | Green | BG | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spectacular Pileup | 56.1% | 49.3% | -6.8% |
| Plow Through | 54.9% | 50.5% | -4.4% |
| Road Rage | 53.9% | 49.9% | -4.0% |
| Gastal Blockbuster | 48.0% | 44.1% | -3.9% |
| Kalakscion, Hunger Tyrant | 52.8% | 49.1% | -3.7% |
| Broken Wings | 53.1% | 49.6% | -3.6% |
| Lightning Strike | 52.6% | 49.1% | -3.6% |
| Wild Roads | 55.0% | 51.6% | -3.4% |
| Silken Strength | 53.1% | 49.7% | -3.4% |
| Skycrash | 51.1% | 47.7% | -3.4% |
Red/Green - Gruul
At last, we take a look at the other aggressive Green deck - Gruul.
Two creatures stand out as being a particular problem for Red/Green: Ooze Patrol and Terrian, World Tyrant. Both have high toughness which makes it a problem for green and red removal.
On the other hand, Aether Syphon and Haunted Hellride are better left in the sideboard against Gruul. It's likely that you have to desperately defend your life total in the early turns and need to affect the board in a defensive way.
| Name | Green | RG | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ooze Patrol | 53.8% | 60.3% | 6.5% |
| Terrian, World Tyrant | 59.5% | 65.8% | 6.3% |
| Alacrian Jaguar | 49.6% | 55.1% | 5.5% |
| Blossoming Sands | 53.1% | 58.5% | 5.4% |
| Earthrumbler | 55.8% | 61.1% | 5.3% |
| Pothole Mole | 56.7% | 61.8% | 5.1% |
| Autarch Mammoth | 58.6% | 63.6% | 5.0% |
| Defend the Rider | 54.1% | 59.1% | 5.0% |
| Jibbirik Omnivore | 54.5% | 59.3% | 4.8% |
| Silken Strength | 53.1% | 57.9% | 4.7% |
| Name | Green | RG | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aether Syphon | 53.8% | 50.1% | -3.7% |
| Haunted Hellride | 52.9% | 49.6% | -3.3% |
| Haunt the Network | 57.8% | 55.5% | -2.3% |
| Hulldrifter | 54.0% | 51.7% | -2.3% |
| Diversion Unit | 53.9% | 51.8% | -2.1% |
| Rangers' Refueler | 57.9% | 56.0% | -1.8% |
| Memory Guardian | 55.5% | 53.8% | -1.6% |
| Thopter Fabricator | 59.4% | 57.7% | -1.6% |
| Mindspring Merfolk | 59.6% | 58.2% | -1.4% |
| Demonic Junker | 56.7% | 55.6% | -1.1% |
Pick Value
Knowing which cards are good against Green decks is one thing, but having access to them during the draft might be a whole different story.
The following list shows the top 10 cards that score highest in a trade-off between win rate and ALSA. So they have a high win rate against Green decks compared to how highly they are picked on average. These are good cards to look out for picking up late.
| Name | Win Rate | ALSA |
|---|---|---|
| Marshals' Pathcruiser | 58.63 | 5.57 |
| Engine Rat | 58.69 | 5.13 |
| Thundering Broodwagon | 60.71 | 3.62 |
| Maximum Overdrive | 56.89 | 6.11 |
| Bestow Greatness | 55.38 | 7.03 |
| Back on Track | 59.09 | 4.11 |
| Veteran Beastrider | 59.24 | 3.99 |
| Foul Roads | 54.58 | 7.33 |
| Embalmed Ascendant | 57.99 | 4.76 |
| Terrian, World Tyrant | 59.46 | 3.66 |
Final Thoughts
Analyzing win rates against specific colors or archetypes can significantly improve your drafting skills.
The most immediate takeaway is gaining a deeper understanding of the current format and correctly evaluating situational cards.
If you’re playing best-of-three matches, it has even more applications as you can sideboard in answers to your opponent’s deck.
Lastly, it enhances your understanding of how certain game mechanics interact, providing valuable insights into Limited Magic as a whole. Understanding that cheap deathtouch creatures or bounce spells are good cards in formats where big green creature decks are good is a valuable lesson that transcends the current set. While such insights can be gained by playing a vast number of games across different formats, analyzing data accelerates the learning process significantly.
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