OTJ Week 01 24.04.2024 — OTJ , Weekly Update — 18 min read
Data used in this analysis is sourced from 17Lands , which aggregates user data to provide insights into Magic: The Gathering limited formats. The information cited here does not imply endorsement by 17Lands.
The first week of Outlaws of Thunder Junction is over and the data is in.
Green is by far the strongest color in these early days of the format and Green/White is the most popular and winning color combination.
But there is more to discover so lets dive into the Premier Draft stats from 17Lands.
Color Popularity
Archetype Popularity
Top Cards per Color
White Commons Win Rate White Uncommons Win Rate Take Up the Shield 58.39% Lassoed by the Law 61.83% Trained Arynx 58.07% Shepherd of the Clouds 60.22% Mystical Tether 57.63% Journey to Nowhere 59.09% Holy Cow 57.23% Getaway Glamer 59.04% Sterling Supplier 57.09% Frontier Seeker 58.35%
Blue Commons Win Rate Blue Uncommons Win Rate Phantom Interference 55.49% Marauding Sphinx 57.42% Jailbreak Scheme 55.07% Repulse 56.74% Take the Fall 54.79% Metamorphic Blast 55.33% Loan Shark 53.8% Essence Capture 55.09% Peerless Ropemaster 53.28% Slickshot Lockpicker 54.7%
Black Commons Win Rate Black Uncommons Win Rate Consuming Ashes 58.46% Hollow Marauder 60.58% Desert's Due 57.73% Shoot the Sheriff 58.28% Vault Plunderer 57.37% Unfortunate Accident 57.26% Desperate Bloodseeker 57.28% Murder 57.0% Mourner's Surprise 57.15% Servant of the Stinger 56.82%
Red Commons Win Rate Red Uncommons Win Rate Explosive Derailment 54.5% Longhorn Sharpshooter 56.47% Prickly Pair 54.14% Scalestorm Summoner 55.01% Discerning Peddler 53.82% Scorching Shot 54.7% Thunder Salvo 52.99% Cunning Coyote 54.08% Reckless Lackey 52.32% Hellspur Brute 53.81%
Green Commons Win Rate Green Uncommons Win Rate Throw from the Saddle 60.33% Outcaster Greenblade 62.42% Snakeskin Veil 58.33% Spinewoods Armadillo 61.56% Spinewoods Paladin 58.06% Beastbond Outcaster 59.31% Cactarantula 57.88% Trash the Town 59.23% Dance of the Tumbleweeds 57.55% Stubborn Burrowfiend 58.93%
Archetype Deep Dive
Azorius (White/Blue)
Format Win Rate Diff. to Avg. Premier Draft (BO1) 51.40% -3.27% Traditional Draft (BO3) 57.33% -2.11%
Top Cards (BO1)
WU Commons Win Rate WU Uncommons Win Rate Soured Springs 56.47% Lassoed by the Law 57.41% Phantom Interference 55.86% Journey to Nowhere 56.61% Take Up the Shield 55.85% Getaway Glamer 56.48% Holy Cow 55.76% Marauding Sphinx 56.46% Mystical Tether 55.3% Prairie Dog 56.43%
Undervalued Cards (BO1)
WU Commons Win Rate ALSA WU Uncommons Win Rate ALSA Armored Armadillo 52.52% 7.74133 Essence Capture 55.62% 5.54 Jailbreak Scheme 53.8% 7.1768 Getaway Glamer 56.48% 4.48 Phantom Interference 55.86% 5.99 Nurturing Pixie 53.82% 5.47 Take Up the Shield 55.85% 5.86244 This Town Ain't Big Enough 54.03% 5.33 Peerless Ropemaster 51.17% 7.84562 Metamorphic Blast 53.96% 5.18
Overvalued Cards (BO1)
WU Commons Win Rate ALSA Name Win Rate ALSA Mirage Mesa 50.36% 4.65524 Arid Archway 47.28% 6.04 Creosote Heath 51.17% 4.83432 Frontier Seeker 51.52% 3.76 Vengeful Townsfolk 48.18% 6.23402 Sheriff of Safe Passage 49.36% 5.00 Razzle-Dazzler 48.05% 6.56202 Shackle Slinger 48.48% 5.83 Silver Deputy 48.71% 6.68168 Nimble Brigand 52.36% 4.07
Orzhov (White/Black)
Format Win Rate Diff. to Avg. Premier Draft (BO1) 56.35% 1.68% Traditional Draft (BO3) 59.47% 0.03%
Top Cards (BO1)
WB Commons Win Rate WB Uncommons Win Rate Vault Plunderer 59.96% Lassoed by the Law 63.18% Mourner's Surprise 59.44% Hollow Marauder 62.58% Consuming Ashes 59.44% Mobile Homestead 61.86% Festering Gulch 59.32% Ruthless Lawbringer 61.74% Sterling Supplier 59.06% Shepherd of the Clouds 61.43%
Undervalued Cards (BO1)
WB Commons Win Rate ALSA WB Uncommons Win Rate ALSA Fake Your Own Death 58.15% 7.35 Humiliate 59.15% 7.07 Sterling Supplier 59.06% 6.7 Mobile Homestead 61.86% 5.12 Nezumi Linkbreaker 58.61% 6.81 Heartless Pillage 60.25% 5.84 Mourner's Surprise 59.44% 6.45 Ruthless Lawbringer 61.74% 5.02 Stagecoach Security 58.36% 6.69 Hollow Marauder 62.58% 3.73
Overvalued Cards (BO1)
WB Commons Win Rate ALSA WB Uncommons Win Rate ALSA Steer Clear 49.28% 6.55 Rattleback Apothecary 53.89% 3.89 Mystical Tether 57.89% 3.79 Prairie Dog 57.24% 3.04 Silver Deputy 50.77% 6.68 Arid Archway 50.99% 6.05 Trained Arynx 55.62% 5 Blood Hustler 57.31% 3.07 Desert's Due 57.35% 4.44 Rakish Crew 53.76% 5.02
Boros (White/Red)
Format Win Rate Diff. to Avg. Premier Draft (BO1) 54.60% -0.07% Traditional Draft (BO3) 59.82% 0.39%
Top Cards (BO1)
WR Commons Win Rate WR Uncommons Win Rate Holy Cow 57.4% Lassoed by the Law 61.16% Mystical Tether 57.33% Longhorn Sharpshooter 58.87% Prickly Pair 56.15% Ertha Jo, Frontier Mentor 58.7% Sterling Keykeeper 56.06% Getaway Glamer 57.88% Explosive Derailment 55.94% Frontier Seeker 57.85%
Undervalued Cards (BO1)
WR Commons Win Rate ALSA WR Uncommons Win Rate ALSA Outlaws' Fury 54.52% 8.01 Ride Down 53.7% 6.42 Sterling Keykeeper 56.06% 6.28 Ertha Jo, Frontier Mentor 58.7% 4.47 Quick Draw 51.26% 7.96 Take for a Ride 53.54% 6.34 Stagecoach Security 54.38% 6.69 Getaway Glamer 57.88% 4.48 Discerning Peddler 55.06% 6.25 Thunder Lasso 53.37% 5.88
Overvalued Cards (BO1)
WR Commons Win Rate ALSA WR Uncommons Win Rate ALSA Creosote Heath 51.56% 4.83 Fierce Retribution 49.83% 4.14 Rodeo Pyromancers 46.37% 7.15 Brimstone Roundup 46.23% 5.78 Forlorn Flats 50.97% 5.4 Prairie Dog 54.52% 3.04 Thunder Salvo 52.97% 4.91 Scorching Shot 53.65% 3.6 Eriette's Lullaby 51.12% 5.65 Journey to Nowhere 56.91% 2.7
Selesnya (White/Green)
Format Win Rate Diff. to Avg. Premier Draft (BO1) 58.58% 3.91% Traditional Draft (BO3) 63.03% 3.60%
Top Cards (BO1)
WG Commons Win Rate WG Uncommons Win Rate Throw from the Saddle 61.86% Lassoed by the Law 63.67% Take Up the Shield 60.6% Ruthless Lawbringer 63.17% Snakeskin Veil 60.26% Shepherd of the Clouds 62.75% Festering Gulch 60.18% Outcaster Greenblade 62.58% Trained Arynx 60.05% Buried in the Garden 62.43%
Undervalued Cards (BO1)
WG Commons Win Rate ALSA WG Uncommons Win Rate ALSA Reach for the Sky 58.64% 7.64 Sandstorm Verge 57.98% 7.2 Gold Pan 57.21% 7.55 Bucolic Ranch 59.47% 6.61 Sterling Supplier 58.56% 6.7 Ruthless Lawbringer 63.17% 5.02 Take Up the Shield 60.6% 5.86 Redrock Sentinel 56.56% 7.3 Sterling Hound 54.74% 7.89 Luxurious Locomotive 55.84% 7.1
Overvalued Cards (BO1)
WG Commons Win Rate ALSA WG Uncommons Win Rate ALSA Hardbristle Bandit 56.19% 3.72 Jem Lightfoote, Sky Explorer 51.42% 4.67 Silver Deputy 50.21% 6.68 Map the Frontier 48.93% 6.34 Eriette's Lullaby 53.91% 5.65 Raucous Entertainer 54.94% 4.01 Freestrider Commando 55.35% 5.14 Sheriff of Safe Passage 52.73% 5 Mirage Mesa 57.2% 4.66 Bovine Intervention 50.3% 6.14
Dimir (Blue/Black)
Format Win Rate Diff. to Avg. Premier Draft (BO1) 53.14% -1.53% Traditional Draft (BO3) 58.28% -1.15%
Top Cards (BO1)
UB Commons Win Rate UB Uncommons Win Rate Desert's Due 58.85% Shoot the Sheriff 60.35% Conduit Pylons 58.41% Marauding Sphinx 59.52% Consuming Ashes 58.37% Hollow Marauder 59.37% Desperate Bloodseeker 58.25% Tyrant's Scorn 58.24% Eroded Canyon 57.98% Metamorphic Blast 58.0%
Undervalued Cards (BO1)
UB Commons Win Rate ALSA UB Uncommons Win Rate ALSA Peerless Ropemaster 55.08% 7.85 Tyrant's Scorn 58.24% 5.41 Jailbreak Scheme 56.46% 7.18 Metamorphic Blast 58.0% 5.19 Take the Fall 57.34% 6.84 Plan the Heist 56.5% 5.98 Ambush Gigapede 56.59% 7.1 Essence Capture 57.13% 5.54 Harrier Strix 55.46% 7.16 Binding Negotiation 55.73% 6.07
Overvalued Cards (BO1)
UB Commons Win Rate ALSA UB Uncommons Win Rate ALSA Boneyard Desecrator 48.13% 7.09 Rakish Crew 49.9% 5.02 Overzealous Muscle 46.94% 7.59 Unscrupulous Contractor 52.63% 4.34 Silver Deputy 50.29% 6.68 Rattleback Apothecary 53.71% 3.89 Razzle-Dazzler 51.05% 6.56 Rictus Robber 53.6% 3.97 Geyser Drake 52.95% 5.97 Emergent Haunting 51.48% 5.17
Izzet (Blue/Red)
Format Win Rate Diff. to Avg. Premier Draft (BO1) 49.78% -4.89% Traditional Draft (BO3) 54.02% -5.41%
Top Cards (BO1)
UR Commons Win Rate UR Uncommons Win Rate Prickly Pair 53.22% Repulse 55.36% Take the Fall 53.03% Slick Sequence 55.15% Jailbreak Scheme 52.89% Marauding Sphinx 55.09% Loan Shark 52.68% Longhorn Sharpshooter 54.92% Discerning Peddler 52.65% Canyon Crab 54.18%
Undervalued Cards (BO1)
UR Commons Win Rate ALSA UR Uncommons Win Rate ALSA Jailbreak Scheme 52.89% 7.18 Slick Sequence 55.15% 5.34 Highway Robbery 52.39% 7.27 Canyon Crab 54.18% 5.13 Take the Fall 53.03% 6.84 Demonic Ruckus 53.21% 5.38 Outlaws' Fury 50.74% 8.01 Repulse 55.36% 3.83 Failed Fording 51.17% 7.24 Plan the Heist 52.26% 5.98
Overvalued Cards (BO1)
UR Commons Win Rate ALSA UR Uncommons Win Rate ALSA Jagged Barrens 47.52% 4.97 Caught in the Crossfire 47.17% 6.04 Lonely Arroyo 47.36% 5.62 Arid Archway 47.61% 6.05 Silver Deputy 46.07% 6.68 Gila Courser 50.33% 4.39 Abraded Bluffs 48.68% 5.35 Nimble Brigand 50.95% 4.07 Deadeye Duelist 49.52% 5.61 Scalestorm Summoner 51.53% 3.75
Simic (Blue/Green)
Format Win Rate Diff. to Avg. Premier Draft (BO1) 54.06% -0.61% Traditional Draft (BO3) 58.79% -0.64%
Top Cards (BO1)
UG Commons Win Rate UG Uncommons Win Rate Throw from the Saddle 58.35% Outcaster Greenblade 62.67% Spinewoods Paladin 57.72% Back for More 61.4% Jailbreak Scheme 57.72% Buried in the Garden 60.7% Phantom Interference 57.18% Repulse 58.47% Patient Naturalist 56.71% Marauding Sphinx 58.11%
Undervalued Cards (BO1)
UG Commons Win Rate ALSA UG Uncommons Win Rate ALSA Jailbreak Scheme 57.72% 7.18 Back for More 61.4% 4.54 Peerless Ropemaster 55.0% 7.85 Plan the Heist 57.45% 5.98 Sterling Hound 54.07% 7.89 Decisive Denial 55.37% 6.32 Take the Fall 55.31% 6.84 Thornado 54.28% 6.73 Phantom Interference 57.18% 5.99 Essence Capture 57.13% 5.54
Overvalued Cards (BO1)
UG Commons Win Rate ALSA UG Uncommons Win Rate ALSA Hardbristle Bandit 55.07% 3.72 Rise of the Varmints 48.42% 5.29 Geyser Drake 49.64% 5.97 Outlaw Stitcher 52.83% 3.62 Giant Beaver 54.64% 4.44 Raucous Entertainer 53.12% 4.01 Razzle-Dazzler 49.48% 6.56 Intrepid Stablemaster 56.11% 2.99 Mirage Mesa 54.77% 4.66 Nimble Brigand 53.35% 4.07
Rakdos (Black/Red)
Format Win Rate Diff. to Avg. Premier Draft (BO1) 52.89% -1.79% Traditional Draft (BO3) 58.20% -1.24%
Top Cards (BO1)
BR Commons Win Rate BR Uncommons Win Rate Consuming Ashes 56.28% Shoot the Sheriff 57.1% Festering Gulch 55.38% Hollow Marauder 56.77% Forlorn Flats 55.01% Longhorn Sharpshooter 56.67% Vault Plunderer 54.87% Scorching Shot 56.62% Rooftop Assassin 54.78% Bandit's Haul 56.57%
Undervalued Cards (BO1)
BR Commons Win Rate ALSA BR Uncommons Win Rate ALSA Fake Your Own Death 53.42% 7.35 Bandit's Haul 56.57% 6.04 Outlaws' Fury 51.43% 8.01 Sandstorm Verge 53.51% 7.2 Mourner's Surprise 54.7% 6.45 Take for a Ride 53.65% 6.34 Nezumi Linkbreaker 53.68% 6.81 Lively Dirge 55.05% 5.6 Corrupted Conviction 51.21% 7.78 Fling 52.35% 6.7
Overvalued Cards (BO1)
BR Commons Win Rate ALSA BR Uncommons Win Rate ALSA Silver Deputy 48.04% 6.68 Brimstone Roundup 44.17% 5.78 Mirage Mesa 52.79% 4.66 Caught in the Crossfire 47.25% 6.04 Oasis Gardener 49.19% 6.46 Rattleback Apothecary 52.1% 3.89 Desert's Due 53.76% 4.44 Baron Bertram Graywater 49.4% 5.16 Overzealous Muscle 47.24% 7.59 Ertha Jo, Frontier Mentor 51.51% 4.47
Golgari (Black/Green)
Format Win Rate Diff. to Avg. Premier Draft (BO1) 56.96% 2.29% Traditional Draft (BO3) 61.67% 2.24%
Top Cards (BO1)
BG Commons Win Rate BG Uncommons Win Rate Throw from the Saddle 61.17% Spinewoods Armadillo 64.73% Consuming Ashes 60.45% Shepherd of the Clouds 63.88% Bristling Backwoods 60.19% Hollow Marauder 63.64% Desert's Due 60.09% Outcaster Greenblade 63.2% Spinewoods Paladin 59.97% Lassoed by the Law 63.15%
Undervalued Cards (BO1)
BG Commons Win Rate ALSA BG Uncommons Win Rate ALSA Ambush Gigapede 57.7% 7.1 Redrock Sentinel 60.12% 7.3 Fake Your Own Death 56.82% 7.35 Sandstorm Verge 59.39% 7.2 Mourner's Surprise 58.5% 6.45 Bucolic Ranch 60.54% 6.61 Sterling Hound 55.34% 7.89 Ruthless Lawbringer 61.91% 5.02 Forlorn Flats 59.89% 5.4 Neutralize the Guards 54.88% 7.07
Overvalued Cards (BO1)
BG Commons Win Rate ALSA BG Uncommons Win Rate ALSA Mystical Tether 56.13% 3.79 Rakish Crew 48.13% 5.02 Raven of Fell Omens 54.16% 5.27 Raucous Entertainer 54.48% 4.01 Freestrider Commando 54.47% 5.14 Forsaken Miner 54.19% 4.41 Lonely Arroyo 53.98% 5.62 Blood Hustler 58.21% 3.07 Hardbristle Bandit 57.9% 3.72 Lazav, Familiar Stranger 54.14% 4.66
Gruul (Red/Green)
Format Win Rate Diff. to Avg. Premier Draft (BO1) 55.66% 0.99% Traditional Draft (BO3) 60.09% 0.66%
Top Cards (BO1)
RG Commons Win Rate RG Uncommons Win Rate Throw from the Saddle 59.0% Outcaster Greenblade 60.01% Snakeskin Veil 57.3% Spinewoods Armadillo 59.82% Tumbleweed Rising 57.15% Trash the Town 59.81% Conduit Pylons 56.46% Cactusfolk Sureshot 58.9% Explosive Derailment 56.3% Badlands Revival 58.59%
Undervalued Cards (BO1)
RG Commons Win Rate ALSA RG Uncommons Win Rate ALSA Gold Pan 54.33% 7.55 Sandstorm Verge 54.6% 7.2 Trick Shot 55.29% 7.06 Bucolic Ranch 55.32% 6.61 Outlaws' Fury 52.66% 8.01 Fling 54.56% 6.7 Tumbleweed Rising 57.15% 6.33 Mobile Homestead 57.74% 5.12 Iron-Fist Pulverizer 54.86% 7.15 Badlands Revival 58.59% 4.77
Overvalued Cards (BO1)
RG Commons Win Rate ALSA RG Uncommons Win Rate ALSA Hardbristle Bandit 54.52% 3.72 Map the Frontier 45.86% 6.34 Silver Deputy 47.26% 6.68 Raucous Entertainer 52.68% 4.01 Mirage Mesa 53.32% 4.66 Skewer the Critics 53.53% 3.71 Deadeye Duelist 50.82% 5.61 Ertha Jo, Frontier Mentor 52.43% 4.47 Freestrider Commando 52.7% 5.14 Clear Shot 56.41% 3.04
